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Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles
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Binding: Hardcover
Dewey Decimal Number: 330.0112
EAN: 9781591396918
ISBN: 1591396913
Label: Harvard Business School Press
Manufacturer: Harvard Business School Press
Number Of Items: 1
Number Of Pages: 256
Publication Date: October 11, 2005
Publisher: Harvard Business School Press
Studio: Harvard Business School Press
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Editorial Review:
Today’s managers and investors are bombarded with so many conflicting economic reports and data that it seems impossible to know which way the market will turn until it’s too late. Now, a thirty-five year Wall Street veteran enables managers and investors to stop relying on conventional economic forecasts (which are usually wrong), and confidently analyse how the market will impact their industry, business, or stocks. The author unveils his proven forecasting model—based on just a few key economic indicators—for identifying major directional changes in the economy and adjusting business and investing strategies accordingly. A simpler and more pragmatic approach to forecasting: user-friendly approach draws from empirical observation and first-hand practice rather than abstract economic theories Great timing: will appeal to the many business people and investors who got burned in the dotcom bust because they didn’t see the downturn coming Proven model developed by a bonafide Wall Street sage: Ellis is widely respected as a sage when it comes to analysing economic trends based on over three decades as a successful Wall Street analyst Novel, counterintuitive, accessible: goes against the grain of common wisdom about what really drives the economy and makes practical tools available to a wide audience of practitioners for the first time Appendix B in the book specifically relates the methodology in the main section of the book to possible application in the UK, Canada, Germany, France, and Japan
Customer Reviews
Average Rating: 
Rating:  - You do not need a PhD
To the reviewer who so proudly holds a PhD from MIT and who criticized the author for failing to provide the reader with a model that should unlock all forecasting mysteries. I would like to remind him that the author never claimed that's what he was trying to do with his book? Unless you were reading a different book?
But for those interested in a fresh, exciting way to revisit past possible failures in forecasting, especially which variables used versus which ones we ought to look ... Read More
Rating:  - The missing piece for people focused on Technical Analysis
This is an excellent book on the economics that drive the stock market.
This is not a casual read, this book is meant to be studied. Once you get the concepts in the book (real wages drives consumer spending, consumer spending drives the market) you have to download data from various Govt. web sites to keep your own data up to date. Ellis has a site for this book but the last time the charts were updates was on January 2008. You have to keep the data updated monthly.
There ... Read More
Rating: - Excellent non-technical primer of stock market behavior
We all want to have as much data as possible when investing in the stock market, but we want to also spend our efforts efficiently. Joseph Ellis gives us an outstanding framework to understand how we can take common, public data and create ways to track the broad market.
Ellis places a very high emphasis on consumer spending, which is not a surprise given that he was Goldman Sachs' lead retail analyst for many years. Without going into significant detail, Ellis shows how a single economic ... Read More
Rating: - A good distillation of Economic numbers mumbo jumbo
Ellis makes his point clear from the beginning - Consumer spending drives the economy. Everything else follows.
- Unemployment's incremental change is effectively meaningless. Very true.
- Capital spending is a REACTION to consumer spending. For many industries, this is true. Some (Semiconductors, pipelines, etc) invest regardless of the market. But these are at the high end of the capital intensive spectrum.
There are other points that are useful. The main drawback is, "Does ... Read More
Rating:  - Sometimes the obvious is worth repeating
Mr. Ellis' professional track-record is virtually universally recognized as unassailable. Consistency means everything in investing, and as America's economy of consumption seems prepared to power dive into terrain, Ellis' remarks will be seem either obvious or alarming. After all, the title tells us that it's 'common sense.' And it really is.
If you want drama, watch CNBC. If you want reason, read this book. The entire book is built on painfully obvious observations, so those seeking analytical ... Read More
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